Abstract: The task of predicting the successful emergence of a technology presents formidable challenges. Be that as it may, there are certain flaws in our view of how technology evolves that make the task appear more daunting than it has to be. We explain one such shortcoming - the Creative Burst Fallacy, and analyze how the resulting overemphasis on the role of creativity in technological innovation has hobbled our ability to foresee emerging technologies. We also present 4 mechanisms by which technologies are born, none of which place a particular premium on creativity or serendipity.

Short Bio: Dr. Vivek Kochikar's areas of interest are in Strategic Foresight, and the Impact of Technology on Business and Society. He serves on the editorial advisory boards and review panels for several international journals and conferences. He works for Infosys Technologies as Associate Vice President and Principal Consultant. Earlier, as Principal Knowledge Manager, he conceived and implemented Infosys's acclaimed internal Knowledge Management architecture. He has also lectured in a guest capacity at business schools and industry worldwide. He has been biographed by Marquis Who's Who in the World 2006, 2007, profiled by Knowledge Management Review magazine, and interviewed by, among others, BBC, TV18, Business Today magazine, and the Economic Times. He holds a PhD from IIT Madras, a Bachelor’s in Technology from IIT Bombay and a Master's in Technology from IISc, Bangalore.